中国股市投资指南
中国股市投资指南
2008年3月18日 星期二
没有几个市场的上涨速度赶得上中国的A股市场——很多人担心A股市场估值水平已经过高。上证综合指数(Shanghai Composite Index)在2006年飙升130%，而在2007年上涨近100%。仅仅上海市场的市值就已接近3万亿美元。
如果包括深圳股市、以外币计价的B股股票及在香港上市的中国股票（即H股），中国股票的总市值约为4.2万亿美元。
但是，相比于2007年的创纪录水平，中国内地和香港的首次公开发行(IPO)活动在2008年开局不顺，暗示中国股市正在逐渐变得与全球市场的波动更加同步。而全球市场的波动则源于对美国衰退、通胀及高油价的恐惧。
虽然中国仍在逐步放宽对于资本进出的限制，但它依然很保守，使得国际投资者没有多少可以投资中国公司的方法。
普林斯顿大学(Princeton University)教授波顿?麦基尔(Burton Malkiel)是经典投资研究著作《漫步华尔街》(A Random Walk Down Wall Street)的作者及有效市场假设的主要提倡者，他在自己的新书《从华尔街到长城》(From Wall Street to the Great Wall)中，建议国际投资者可以利用几种方法进入中国股市。
但是麦基尔教授警告称：“如果你以为中国投资是快速致富的捷径，只有收获而不必付出，那你就大错特错了。”该书的一段摘录如是说。
麦基尔教授认为，大多数投资者更适合通过共同基金来参与投资中国，而专注于中国的交易所交易基金(ETF)尤其具有吸引力。他在2月29日（周五）回答了读者的问题。
说明：麦基尔教授是Alpha Shares的首席投资官，该机构与标准普尔(S&P)一起为下面提到的HAO及TAO基金提供指数服务。他还持有邓普顿巨龙基金(Templeton Dragon Fund)的一小部分股权。
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考虑到中国市场的性质，您能否同意中国股市远远不如美国市场有效的说法？如果是这样，对于成熟的投资者而言，是否存在着利用这一特点的机会？
克莱门特?罗(Clement Loh)，多伦多
波顿?麦基尔：中国本地股市，即所谓的A股市场，并非一个有效市场。有管理的股票基金的业绩一般会好于市场平均水平，而市场中还存在着一些不正常的地方。但是，中国股市相当复杂。有些中国公司的股票也在香港上市，即所谓的H股市场。另外，还有在纽约上市的N股、伦敦上市的L股、新加坡上市的S股等等。我发现，对国际竞争开放的市场（即除了A股以外的市场），一般具有更加有效的定价。
一个不正常现象说明了A股市场的无效率：当一些公司的股票同时在上海A股市场与香港H股市场（以及美国N股市场）交易时，香港与纽约的价格一般趋同，但同一只股票的A股价格则通常存在着50%到100%的溢价。尽管如此，除非手中握有数量有限的合格境外机构投资者(QFII)配额，否则，这些无效率之处并不会为国际投资者带来任何机会。总的来说，国际投资者无法在 A股市场买或卖。这个市场基本上仅对那些生活在大陆的中国公民开放。当地的中国机构的确会利于投资者的不成熟，这就是为什么有管理的基金一般会跑赢市场指数。
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如果人民币兑美元将在未来的几年里每年至少升值10%，这个原因本身是一个投资中国的理由吗？
罗伯特?金(Robert King)，马来西亚
波顿?麦基尔：我认为中国人民币是目前全球最为低估的货币。一个很好的例子就是伦敦《经济学人》(Economist)杂志的巨无霸指数(“Big Mac” index)，这个指数运用各国的麦当劳汉堡价格来计算购买力平价。一个巨无霸在纽约的售价是3美元，在伦敦是4美元，在上海只有1.31美元。
我认为人民币兑其它货币的汇率会继续上升。中国政府不让人民币自由浮动，但在过去两年中，允许人民币兑美元以每年超过5%的速度升值。我认为，在未来的很多年里，人民币将会一直面临上行压力，而且我认为，人民币的低估正是投资者为何要对中国股票进行一定程度投资的诸多原因之一。
中国证券市场出现大回调（>30%）的可能性有多大？中国政府能采取措施预防或减轻这种现象吗？
文森特?向(音译，Vincent Siang)，中国北京
波顿?麦基尔：中国股市的动荡程度在全球屈指可数，甚至比巴西股市还要动荡。大回调不仅可能出现，而且还可能动辄持续三年。中国政府可以采取一些措施减轻动荡。例如，政府可以限制新股发行数量和融资额，可以更为逐步地向市场释放政府持有的股票，等等。但我认为，政府无法预防市场回调。
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外资热钱会不会先把市场推高，然后一走了之，就像1997年亚洲金融危机时那样？
安德鲁(Andrew)
波顿?麦基尔：外资可以在不同国家迅速进出。不过，话虽如此，但与1997年遭遇亚洲金融危机的那些国家相比，中国的情况有两大不同。首先，人民币受到严格控制。其次，与很多亚洲货币在90年代的情况不同，据我判断，人民币被低估了。我料想，如果市场完全放开，国际资本市场最不可能发生的事情就是人民币贬值。因为人民币已经被严重低估了，而中国还有大约1.5万亿美元外汇储备。
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中国股市存在那么多扭曲之处（比如流通股比例很少、人们普遍期望政府会在指数下跌过低时出手干预、公司治理标准不高等等），那么，投资者事实上能对价值做出何种程度的明智判断呢？当他们购买一只中国股票的时候，他们实际上是在买什么呢？
NRT，北京
波顿?麦基尔：毫无疑问，中国会计准则的透明度、公司治理标准等等都很成问题。然而，在香港和其它国际资本市场上交易的股票必须遵守国际会计准则，而香港上市公司的公司治理更好一些。即便如此，购买中国的股票也很有风险。这就是我在《从华尔街到长城》这本书里建议大家采取混合策略的原因。如果要参与中国市场，你购买的股票有一半应该是在国际市场上交易的中国公司股票，另一半要购买国际公司的股票——这些公司具有更好的会计准则和治理标准，但业务会受到中国增长的巨大影响。这种间接战略（购买那些在国际市场交易的股票，这些公司位于国外、却受益于中国）应该包括大宗商品领域，这一点很重要。中国对原材料的需求非常旺盛，我相信，随着中国继续增长，这种需求也会持续。
我相信中国政府将取消对人民币的控制，虽然缓慢，但确定无疑。面对中国最终取消对人民币的控制，我们从中受益的最佳方法是什么？我在Power Shares Golden Dragon fund投了很多钱。
德鲁?D?佩特斯(Drew D Pettus)，华盛顿州贝灵汉
波顿?麦基尔：如上所述，投资于公司治理较好、更为透明、在国际市场交易的中国公司股票，将在人民币升值时令投资者受益。
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中国股市在盘中似乎波动很大。确实如此吗？如果是，原因何在？
克里斯?斯图尔特(Chris Stewart)，开普敦
波顿?麦基尔：中国股市确实显示出了过度的波动性，但不仅仅表现在一个交易日内，还表现在周与周、年与年之间。A股市场尤其如此，而这正显示出中国股市缺乏效率。
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中国拥有大量外汇储备，因此对于中国而言，吸引组合投资者没有太大意义，因为这只会给逐步升值的人民币增加上行压力。中国有义务放开其资本市场吗？
乌姆纳?萨耶赫(Umnuay Sae-Hau)，曼谷
波顿?麦基尔：中国没有义务放开其资本市场和汇率管制。然而，美国和欧盟(EU)要求中国这样做的政治压力很大。例如，在美国总统候选人巴拉克?奥巴马 (Barack Obama)和希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)最近的辩论中，希拉里再次提出一个经常听到的说法，即中国是一个汇率操纵国，必须令其人民币更快升值。
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考虑到中国A股市场的流动性，您认为A股市场相对于H股市场的溢价合理吗？
杰西卡?张(Jessica Zhang)
波顿?麦基尔：我认为，中国A股市场相对于H股市场的溢价是不合理的。这违背了“一价定律(the law of one price)。”认为中国人寿(China Life) A股价格应是H股两倍的看法毫无理由。唯一的原因是，中国公民不能将人民币兑换为港元，在香港市场购买中国人寿。另外，中国的汇率管制阻止了投资者在两个市场的套利行为。
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奥运会和中国股市之间有什么关系吗？
约翰尼?张(Johnny Zhang)，英国
波顿?麦基尔：我认为，奥运会和中国股市之间可能存在一定关系。我不会对任何一国股市进行短期预测，但我确实认为，随着2008年8月奥运会的临近，对奥运会的宣传力度将不断加大，国际社会对中国和中国股票的兴趣可能会大大增强。
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购买一些在纽约证交所(NYSE)交易的中国企业的美国存托股票/美国存托凭证(ADS/ADRs)，并持有两到三年，与购买一些关注中国市场的交易所交易基金(ETFs)，并持有同样长的时间，您认为哪个策略更好？
安吉洛?帕克(Angelo Park)，芝加哥
波顿?麦基尔：我认为，香港H股市场和纽约N股市场都是相当有效率的。相比于指数化的交易所交易基金，我并没有看到投资于H股和N股的有管理的基金取得更好的表现。因此，我青睐那些投资中国股市的低成本交易所交易基金，包括：跟踪富时(FTSE)/新华(Xinhua)大盘股指数的指数基金FXI；跟踪H股和N股的 GXC 基金；跟踪中国地产类股的TAO基金；以及跟踪中国小盘股的HAO基金。一些关注中国的基金最近也在大幅折价发行。如果邓普顿巨龙等基金以折让20%的价格发行，这将是一个投资H股组合的有效方法。然而，就算CAF基金大幅折价发行，但我也不会购买这只交易所交易基金。这个基金投资于中国A股，而我认为A 股相对于H股估值过高。
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去年11月，我向一个共同基金投资了5000英镑，如今已损失1300英镑。这曾是在英国发行的、表现最好的中国基金。我应该卖掉它还是继续持有呢？
J?菲尔波特(J Philpott)，英国肯特郡
波顿?麦基尔：由于中国股市的巨大波动性，我不建议在某一特定时间做出任何投资。如果你有5000英镑用于投资，我更希望你每一个月或两个月投入1000英镑，而不是一次全投进去。一次性全部投入可能会令你遭遇一个正处于最高点的市场。我还认为，投资中国股市的投资者应有长期持有的计划。我认为，在未来5到 10年，即便是2007年11月的投资也会取得回报。
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我在彭博(Bloomberg)看到很多文章说，上海许多年轻女性放弃了自己的工作，专门炒股。这不就是一个最为明确的卖出信号吗？
史蒂文?迪托(Steven Dutaut)，伦敦
波顿?麦基尔：毫无疑问，上海和深圳的A股市场尤为投机和低效。这就是我不建议投资A股的原因。
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很多在伦敦另项投资市场(AIM)上市的企业声称，它们的业绩受中国的影响非常大——尤其是那些私人创业型企业的增长，而非受到政府干涉的行业巨头。作为投资中国的方法之一，你认为投资于这些公司可行吗？它们确实代表中国，还是仅与英国其它小盘股走势一致（如今，它们的走势是下跌）？
乔纳森?埃利(Jonathan Eley)，英国
波顿?麦基尔：如上所述，我确实认为，购买受益于中国增长的非中国企业，这种间接策略对于投资者而言是一项有用的低风险战略。这些公司可能是小企业，或者诸如通用电气 (GE)、LVMH和必和必拓(BHP Billiton)等大型国际公司。此外，中国拥有众多规模较小的私营初创企业，在这些私营企业，政府所有权比例较低或为零。如上所述，投资者可以通过 HAO交易所交易基金投资于这类公司。最近，所有市场都面临着压力，并倾向于一起波动。然而，长期而言，我认为投资者将从直接和间接投资中国经济增长中获益。
译者/何黎
Ask the Expert: Investing in Chinese equities
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Few markets have grown as quickly as China's A-share market - many fear to overvalued levels. The Shanghai Composite index surged 130 per cent in 2006 and almost 100 per cent in 2007, and the Shanghai market alone has a market capitalisation of nearly $3,000bn.
Including the Shenzhen stock market, foreign currency-denominated B shares and Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong, or H shares, the total market for Chinese shares is worth about $4,200bn.
However, 2008 has started poorly for initial public offerings in China and Hong Kong compared with the record year of 2007, suggesting Chinese shares are becoming more correlated to the volatility in global markets wrought by fears of US recession, inflation, and higher oil prices.
While China continues to gradually liberalise flows of capital entering and exiting the mainland, it remains conservative, leaving international investors few options to gain exposure to Chinese companies.
Burton Malkiel, economics professor at Princeton University, author of the classic investment study A Random Walk Down Wall Street and leading advocate of the efficient market hypothesis, proposes several ways international investors can access the Chinese stock market in his new book From Wall Street to the Great Wall.
However, Professor Malkiel warns: “If you think Chinese investments are the way to get rich quick, with all gain and no pain, you may be in for a rude disappointment.” Read an excerpt from the book.
Professor Malkiel believes most investors will be better off participating in Chinese investments through mutual funds and that exchange traded funds (ETFs) dedicated to China are particularly attractive. He answered your questions on Friday, February 29.
Disclosure: Professor Malkiel is chief investment officer for Alpha Shares, which along with S&P, provides the index for the HAO and TAO funds mentioned below. He also has a small holding in the Templeton Dragon Fund (TDF).
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Given the nature of the Chinese market, would you agree with the statement that the Chinese stock market is much less efficient than, say, the US market? If so, are there opportunities for sophisticated investors to take advantage of?
Clement Loh, Toronto
Burton Malkiel: The local Chinese stock market – the so called A-share market – is not an efficient market. Managed equity funds tend to outperform the market averages and a number of anomalies characterize that market. However, the Chinese stock market is quite complicated. There are shares of Chinese companies that are also traded in Hong Kong. This is called the H-share market. In addition, shares trade in New York (N-shares), London (L-shares), Singapore (S-shares), etc. I find that the markets that are open to international competition (that is, markets other than the A-share markets) do tend to be more efficiently priced.
One anomaly that illustrates the inefficiency of the A-share market is that when some companies trade both in the Shanghai A-share market and in the Hong Kong in the H-share market (as well as in the United States N-share market) the prices in Hong Kong and New York tend to be the same, but the prices of the same shares typically trade at premiums between 50 and 100 percent in the A-share market. These inefficiencies, however, do not present an opportunity to international investors unless one has one of the limited number of QFII quotas. The A-share market is not generally available for either buying or selling. The market is essentially restricted to Chinese nationals living on the mainland. Local Chinese institutions do take advantage of unsophisticated investors and that is why managed funds in China tend to outperform the market indices.
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If the renminbi is going to appreciate by least 10% per annum against the US dollar in the next few years, wouldn't that in itself be a reason to have an exposure to China?
Robert King, Malaysia
Burton Malkiel: I believe the Chinese Yuan (RMB) is the most undervalued currency in the world today. A good example of that undervaluation is the London Economist's “Big Mac” index. The London Economist's prices a Big Mac in nations all over the world to estimate purchasing power parity. A Big Mac sells for $3.00 in New York, over $4.00 in London, and $1.31 in Shanghai.
I believe the Yuan will continue to appreciate against other currencies. The Chinese government is not letting the Yuan float freely, but it has allowed an annual appreciation during the past two years of more than 5 percent against the US dollar. I believe there will be upward pressure on the Yuan for many years to come and I believe that the undervaluation of the currency is one of the many reasons why investors should have some exposure to Chinese equities.
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How likely is a major downward correction (>30%) in the China equity markets in the next three years? Can the Chinese government do anything to prevent or mitigate this?
Vincent Siang, Beijing, China
Burton Malkiel: The Chinese stock market is one of the most volatile in the world. It is even more volatile than the Brazilian stock market. A major correction is not only possible, but likely in any three year period. The Chinese government can take some actions to mitigate the volatility. For example, they can restrict the number and amount of new issues, they can release government owned shares to the market more gradually, etc. But I do not believe that the government can prevent market corrections.
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Will hot foreign money push up the market first, and then run away, as happened during the Asian crisis in 1997?
Andrew
Burton Malkiel: Foreign money can move quite rapidly into and out of different countries. Having said that, however, there are two differences in the Chinese situation from those that existed during the Asian crisis of 1997. First, China's currency is tightly controlled. Second, unlike many of the Asian currencies in the 1990s, the Chinese currency, in my judgment, is undervalued. If markets were completely free, I would expect that a run on the Chinese Yuan would be one of the least likely events in international capital markets, because the Yuan is so undervalued and China has about $1.5 trillion in reserves.
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Given the many distortions in China's stockmarkets - e.g. small free floats, widespread expectation of government intervention if indices drop too low, low standards of corporate governance - to what extent can investors actually make informed decisions about value? And what are they actually buying when they buy a Chinese stock?
NRT, Beijing
Burton Malkiel: There is no question that transparency of Chinese accounting standards, standards of corporate governance, etc., are problematic. However, shares traded in Hong Kong and in other international capital markets must conform to international accounting standards and Hong Kong listed companies have somewhat better corporate governance. Even so, buying Chinese stocks is risky. This is why in my book, From Wall Street to the Great Wall, I recommend a mixed strategy. Perhaps half of one's exposure to China should come from buying Chinese companies' stocks that are traded in international markets and the other half by buying international companies with better accounting and governance standards, but whose business is importantly affected by the growth of China. This indirect strategy (buying companies traded in international markets and domiciled abroad that benefit from China) should include an important exposure to commodities. China has had a voracious appetite for raw materials and I believe that will continue as China continues to grow.
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I believe the Chinese government will slowly but surely lift controls on the renminbi. What is the best way to deriving benefit from the eventual removal of exchange controls? I have a significant investment in the Power Shares Golden Dragon fund.
Drew D Pettus, Bellingham, Washington
Burton Malkiel: As indicated above, an exposure to the better governed, more transparent Chinese companies traded in international markets, will tend to benefit the investor as the Chinese Yuan appreciates.
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The Chinese stock market seems to show excessive volatility intraday. Is this a true observation and if so why does it occur?
Chris Stewart, Cape Town
Burton Malkiel: The Chinese market does show excessive volatility, not only intraday, but also from week to week and year to year. This is especially true of the A-share market and this does indicate a lack of efficiency.
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With its swollen foreign exchange reserves, it wouldn't make much sense for China to woo portfolio investors, as this would only add upward pressure to its appreciating currency. Is it under any obligation to liberalize its capital market?
Umnuay Sae-Hau, Bangkok
Burton Malkiel: China is not obligated to liberalize its capital market and free its currency. However, there are considerable political pressures from both the US and the European Union to have them do so. For example, during the recent debate between presidential candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, Clinton again repeated the often heard claim that China is a currency manipulator and must let its currency appreciate more rapidly.
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Do you think the premium A share market is enjoying now compared with H share market is reasonable considering the liquidity in A share market?
Jessica Zhang
Burton Malkiel: I do not think the premium in the A-share market over the H-share market is justified. It violates “the law of one price.” There is no reason to think that China Life should sell for double the price in Shanghai than it does in Hong Kong. The only reason for this is that Chinese citizens cannot exchange their Yuan for Hong Kong dollars and buy China Life in the Hong Kong market. Moreover, currency restrictions prevent an arbitrage between the two markets.
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Is there any correlation between the Olympics and Chinese stocks?
Johnny Zhang, UK
Burton Malkiel: I think there could be a correlation between the Olympics and the Chinese stock markets. I do not make short term predictions about any stock market, but I do believe, as we get closer to August 2008, there will be increasing publicity about the Olympics and possibly considerably more international interest in China and in Chinese stocks.
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Do you think it would better to own a few Chinese ADS/ADRs traded on the NYSE for two to three years, or buying the China-focused ETFs for the same period?
Angelo Park, Chicago
Burton Malkiel: I believe that the Hong Kong market and the market for Chinese stocks in New York are reasonably efficient. I do not find that managed funds investing in H and N shares do better than some of the indexed ETFs. I therefore favor low cost ETFs that give investors a Chinese exposure. Such ETFs include: FXI, an index fund that tracks the FTSE/Xinhua large-capitalization index; GXC, an ETF of H and N shares; TAO, an ETF of Chinese property development companies; and HAO, an ETF of Chinese small capitalization companies. It is also the case that recently some closed in China funds have been selling at substantial discounts. If a fund such as the Templeton Dragon Fund is selling at a 20 percent discount, this would be a useful way of accessing a portfolio of H-shares. I would not, however, buy the ETF CAF, even though it does trade at a substantial discount. This ETF invests in A-shares, which I believe are overvalued relative to H-shares.
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I invested ￡5000 in November in a unit trust which has now lost ￡1300. This was previously the best performing China fund sold in the UK. Should I sell or hold?
J Philpott, Dymchurch, Kent, UK
Burton Malkiel: Because of the enormous volatility of Chinese stocks, I do not recommend that any investment be made at a single time. If one had ￡5000 to invest, I would much prefer to put ￡1000 into the market every one or two months, rather than investing it all at once. Investing it all at once runs the risk of putting one's investment into the market at a peak in market prices. I also believe that investors in Chinese stocks should plan on a very long holding period. Over the next five to ten years, I believe even an investment made in November 2007 will prove to be profitable.
