翻译：实物黄金市场和纸黄金市场严重背离 [转贴]
博主注：翻译完这篇文章，心中很多的猜测都被验证了。
过去的一周再次黄金和白银价格下跌，虽然本周初他们有显示复苏的迹象。
当价格大幅下降，通常表明会有很大的清算发生。你也将倾向于看到新的信息，这解释了为什么投资者突然反转。
这不是黄金和白银市场正在发生的事情。在过去五个星期，黄金下跌超过18 ％，银下跌30 ％以上是因为政府在市场上进行了广泛的干预。
政府干预的两个主要形式是：
一，外国中央银行购买大量的美元，以支撑币值。在到8月8号的三周里，国际清算银行报告有超过520亿美元的此类活动，这其中还不包括任何未幕后的交易。
二，尽管对实物黄金和白银有大量的需求，中央银行时刻准备以一定的租赁费率“租出”贵金属，以防止贵金属任何更主要的峰值的到来。尽管如此，在过去数周，租赁费率上涨在一、两天达到高峰。中央银行几乎是乞求他们的贸易伙伴来借入黄金和白银并在现货市场出售。
三，他们成功地大幅度拉低价格，导致杠杆投资者产生保证金要求。那些无法满足的要求的投资者被迫清盘。这甚至在更多的贵金属市场上引起了清盘。
实际上，黄金和白银价格下跌是因为卖出了大量的“纸”金属。“总有一天”中央银行和其贸易伙伴短期内卖出的大量纸黄金的黄金将兑现。他们没有卖出金或银是因为这些市场的基本面没有任何改变。相反，他们只是销售的一部分来实现支持美元和股票市场，以及和打压黄金和白银的价格的策略。价格当然不可能下跌，因为世界上所有支持更高的黄金和白银的价格的政治和经济动荡并未得到解决。
那么，在实物黄金和白银市场到底发生了什么事情？
几乎与纸黄金市场完全相反。几乎没有真金白银被长线投资者清算。相反地，他们正试图发疯地购买真金白银。
我们商店的活动反映了正在发生的事情，在全国和世界各地的钱币商店及金银交易商，实物黄金白银已几乎完全消失，客户现在不得不等待数周甚至数月来支取几乎任何类型的金币或金条。上周晚些时候，美国铸币厂无限期暂停销售1盎司美洲鹰的黄金制品，因为它根本不能满足需求。
在印度孟买，银行和黄金交易商上周晚些时候报道说，销售额已跃升至最近水平的8倍以上，最近每天售出12.5000盎司！这意味着一个城市就可以吸收全球黄金矿业生产的50 ％以上！美国也是一样，印度这个传统的世界上最大的黄金消费国，潜在的黄金买家，现在不得不等待黄金交货。
由于如此强烈的需求，保费已大幅度跃升。相对刚刚过去的一周的黄金市场，美洲鹰和和南非的克鲁格金币的保费已跃升2 ％左右。加拿大的一盎司黄金枫叶相对黄金升了1%。购买这种硬币的客户可能要等三至五周，他们必须在硬币造好前下订单。金币如墨西哥50比索和奥地利100电晕仍相对可用的，他们的保费只是轻微上涨。
如果没有人出售任何实物黄金，那些已出售的黄金的保费将不断上升。这并不表明实物黄金已经泛滥。当纸黄金市场的美元交易量远高于现货市场时，实物黄金的供需关系将最终决定黄金的均衡价格。现在，现货市场说黄金（银）价格太低太低了。这可能是最后一个伟大的买进机会，即使这意味着你必须等待一段时间才能交付。
The Disconnect Between The Physical Gold and 'Paper Contract' Markets
2008-8-21
Gold and silver prices declined again in the past week, though they have showed signs of recovery early this week.
When prices fall sharply, that normally indicates that there is a lot of liquidation taking place. You will also tend to see new information which explains why investors are suddenly reversing course.
That is not what is happening in the gold and silver markets. Gold is down over 18 percent and silver more than 30 percent in the past five weeks because of widespread government interventions in the markets.
Two major forms of government intervention are:
-- Foreign central banks are buying massive amounts of US dollars to prop up the value of the currency. In the three weeks to Aug.8, the Bank for International Settlements reported over $52 billion of such activity, which does not include any unreported behind-the-scenes transactions.
-- Despite massive demand for physical gold and silver, the central banks stand ready to "lease" precious metals to prevent any more major spikes in the lease rates for these metals. Nonetheless, there were some spikes over the past few weeks where lease rates soared for a day. The central banks are practically begging their trading partners to borrow gold and silver and sell it on the spot market.
Their success in driving down prices significantly has resulted in margin calls for leveraged investors. Those that could not meet the requirement to put up more funds had their positions sold out. Closing out their leveraged positions dumped even more precious metals on the markets.
In effect, the prices of gold and silver have fallen because of a large number of sales of "paper" metal. Central banks and their trading partners are selling short huge amounts of gold on paper contracts that will have to be replaced "someday." They are not selling gold or silver because of any fundamental change in those markets. Instead, they are simply selling as part of their strategy to support the U.S. dollar and stock markets and to knock down gold and silver prices. Prices are certainly not falling because all of the world's political and economic turmoil supporting higher gold and silver prices have been resolved.
So what has been happening in the markets for physical gold and silver?
Almost the exact opposite of the paper contract markets. Virtually no physical gold or silver is being liquidated by long-term investors. Instead, they are trying to purchase gold and silver like crazy.
Activity at our store mirrors what is happening at coin shops and bullion dealers across the country and around the world. Physical supplies have almost totally vanished, with customers now having to wait weeks or months to obtain delivery for almost any gold coins or ingots. Late last week, the U.S. Mint indefinitely suspended sales of 1 ounce gold American Eagles because it simply could not meet demand.
In Mumbai (formerly Bombay), India, banks and bullion dealers late last week reported that sales had jumped eight times above recent levels, to more than 125,000 ounces per day! That means that demand from just this one city is now absorbing more than 50 percent of worldwide gold mining production! As in the U.S., would-be gold buyers in India, traditionally the world's largest gold-consuming nation, now have to wait for delivery of gold.
As a result of such strong demand, premiums have jumped significantly. Both the American Eagle and South Africa Krugerrand premiums have jumped about 2 percent relative to gold in just the past week. Canada 1 ounce gold Maple Leafs are up about 1percent relative to gold. Purchasers of such coins may have to wait three to five weeks before the coins are available to fill their orders. Gold coins such as the Mexico 50 peso and the Austria 100 corona are still relatively available, with their premiums up only slightly.
If no one has any physical gold to sell, and premiums are rising on what is being sold, that is not a sign of a market that is flooded with physical metal. While the paper contract gold market trades a far higher dollar volume than the physical market, it is the supply and demand of physical gold that will ultimately determine an equilibrium price for gold. Right now, the physical market is saying that the prices of gold (and silver) are far too low. This could be the last great buying opportunity, even if it means you have to wait a while for delivery.
